Weekly Market Commentary
Each week the LPL Financial Research team assembles thoughtful insight on market news.
October 18th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
We have used most of the superlatives we know to describe corporate America’s stunning performances over the past two earnings seasons. Despite lofty expections, results exceeded estimates by the biggest margins we’ve ever seen (and one of the authors of this report has been doing this for 23 years).
October 11th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Last week, Congress was able to push back a fast-approaching deadline for raising the debt ceiling to December. Markets applauded the move with a relief rally. Despite decreased uncertainty in the near term, we may be confronted with the same problem again in a couple of months.
October 4th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
With the fourth quarter underway—historically the best quarter for stocks, by the way—2022 is fast approaching. While a lot can still happen between now and the end of 2021, we don’t think it’s too early to start thinking about what stocks might do next year.
September 20th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Until recently, we expected the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year between 1.75% and 2.0%. Now, however, there are two key elements suggesting we are unlikely to see significantly higher interest rates by year end: The Delta variant’s impact on economic growth expectations, and the continued demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors. As such, our new year-end target for the 10-year Treasury yield is between 1.50% and 1.75%.
September 13th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September, and the Democrats are trying to pass two major spending bills and will need to provide greater clarity on tax increases over the next several weeks.
August 30th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Corrections are a normal part of investing and the S&P 500 Index has yet to pull back even 5% so far this year, something that happens on average three times per year. However, we remain steadfastly bullish and this week want to explore five things that some bears believe that do not worry us
August 23rd, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
The term stagflation has been circulating increasingly in the financial media as inflation readings have risen sharply in recent months. The term is often associated with the 1970s, which saw runaway inflation—largely driven by sky-high energy prices—and lackluster economic growth.
August 16th, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Corporate America did it again. Companies blew by estimates and made strategists and analysts look silly. S&P 500 earnings growth did not surprise by quite as much as in the first quarter, but came pretty close.
August 2, 2021 – LPL Research____________________________
Looking forward, we expect continued growth in the third quarter but with a different composition. Consumer spending should still be respectable, but likely will recede a bit due to the fading impact of past government transfer payments and less impetus from the reopening. Business investment should continue to recover, though, and net exports may improve as the rest of the world plays catch-up to the U.S. in their recoveries, consuming more of our goods and services.
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